Sunshine Pictures IPO: All eyes on listing after 105x bids; what does GMP indicate?

New Delhi: Sunshine Pictures is set to make its stock market debut on Tuesday, August 25, after one of the more heavily subscribed recent mainboard IPOs, but the grey market is not showing quite the same level of excitement as its subscription numbers. Sunshine Pictures IPO GMP The Rs 282.14-crore IPO was subscribed a whopping 105.81 times, creating expectations of a blockbuster listing. However, a day before the debut, its latest grey market premium, or GMP, is hovering at around Rs 63-65 per share, according to grey-market trackers. At the upper issue price of Rs 360, a GMP of Rs 65 indicates an estimated listing price of around Rs 425, or an upside of roughly 18%. That is still a premium, but perhaps not the kind of number the 105-times subscription figure might have led investors to expect. More importantly, the GMP has lost some momentum. Sunshine Pictures' premium had touched around Rs 80 per share, or more than 22% over the issue price, around the time the IPO closed. It subsequently slipped into the Rs 60-65 range ahead of listing. Grey market premiums are unofficial, unregulated and can change rapidly. They should not be treated as a guarantee of the eventual listing price. How strong was Sunshine Pictures IPO subscription? The answer: exceptionally strong. Investors bid for about 58.04 crore shares against 54.86 lakh shares available, taking the overall subscription to 105.81 times. The biggest rush came from non-institutional investors. The NII quota was subscribed 197.04 times, with the big-NII segment attracting 198.42 times bids and the small-NII portion 194.27 times. Qualified institutional buyers also piled in on the final day, taking the QIB subscription to 123.52 times. Retail investors, meanwhile, subscribed their portion 56.60 times. The pace at which the book filled also stands out. Sunshine Pictures was subscribed only 4.34 times after the first day and 18.47 times after day two before demand exploded on the final day to 105.81 times. Why did Sunshine Pictures IPO receive such huge demand? One factor was the relatively limited number of shares available compared with the volume of bids, making the subscription multiple shoot up once institutional and wealthy investors entered aggressively on the final day. The company had also secured about Rs 84.64 crore from anchor investors ahead of the IPO, providing an early indication of institutional interest. Its established presence in the film and entertainment industry may also have helped attract investors. Sunshine Pictures, promoted by Vipul Amrutlal Shah, Shefali Vipul Shah, Aryaman Vipul Shah and Maurya Vipul Shah, develops and produces films, television programmes and digital content. Its production portfolio includes titles such as Force, Commando: A One Man Army, Holiday: A Soldier Is Never Off Duty, Force 2, Commando 2 and The Kerala Story. As of the offer document, it had produced 13 commercial films, besides web series and television shows. Low debt and strong profitability ratios also added to the investment case. Sunshine Pictures' financials The headline financial numbers present a mixed picture. The company's revenue from operations has declined for two consecutive years, falling from Rs 133.80 crore in FY24 to Rs 103.33 crore in FY25 and further to Rs 74.44 crore in FY26. However, profit after tax increased to Rs 40.02 crore in FY26, from Rs 34.46 crore in FY25. PAT had stood at Rs 53.35 crore in FY24. EBITDA stood at Rs 58.55 crore in FY26 compared with Rs 50.76 crore in the previous financial year. The balance sheet has strengthened as well. Net worth increased from Rs 70.60 crore in FY24 to Rs 105.07 crore in FY25 and Rs 145.13 crore in FY26. Borrowings, meanwhile, fell from Rs 16.67 crore in FY24 to Rs 11.16 crore in FY25 and Rs 9.09 crore in FY26. Its FY26 debt-to-equity ratio was just 0.06. The decline in revenue, however, remains an important factor for investors to consider. Film production is inherently project-driven, meaning revenue can fluctuate substantially depending on when projects are completed, released and monetised. Sunshine Pictures IPO size Sunshine Pictures raised Rs 282.14 crore through the IPO at a price band of Rs 342-360 per share. The offer consisted of a fresh issue worth Rs 172.80 crore and an offer for sale worth Rs 109.34 crore by promoter shareholders. The company plans to use a large part of the fresh proceeds to fund working capital requirements, with the remaining amount earmarked for general corporate purposes. At the upper price band, the company's post-issue price-to-earnings multiple is estimated at around 28 times FY26 earnings. What to expect from Sunshine Pictures listing? Tuesday's listing will essentially test whether the extraordinary IPO subscription translates into equally enthusiastic secondary-market demand. The 105.81-times subscription, particularly the 123.52-times QIB and 197.04-times NII books, has undoubtedly raised expectations. The grey market, however, is signalling something more measured. With the GMP having fallen from around Rs 80 to the Rs 63-65 zone ahead of listing, the unofficial market currently points towards a healthy premium rather than an explosive debut. Whether Sunshine Pictures beats those grey-market indications - or finds the enormous IPO subscription difficult to live up to - will become clear when the shares begin trading on the BSE and NSE on August 25.